5-year model — 3 scenarios — Bear / Mid / Bull
Financial Intelligence
Mid-Case BaseScenario:
Raise Target
$6M
$24M cap · 20% disc.
Worst-Point Burn
$0.00M
Seed stage Y3
Raise Buffer
+$6000K
above worst point
Cash-Positive
N/A
first operating surplus
Cash Runway — MID (post $6M raise)
>$2M — safe$500K–$2M — watch<$500K — critical
Cash remaining after each year's net burn
5-Year P&L — MID
Revenue Ramp — MID
Year-by-Year P&L — MID (USD thousands)
| Year | Phase | Revenue | Opex | Capex | Net Burn | Cumulative |
|---|
Unit Economics
| Revenue Stream | Unit Price | Gross Margin | LTV:CAC | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Simulator Training Seat | $4,000 | 65% | 3.4× | Y1 active, 2 cohorts × 10 seats |
| eVTOL Training Seat | $4,000 | 65% | 3.4× | Y2 H2 when fleet delivered |
| OEM Test Campaign | $25,000 | 70% | 8.4× | High-value, low-volume |
| Anchor Partner Retainer | $100K/yr | 80% | 7.4× | Annual recurring |
| MRCP Racing Event | $30K–$75K | 40% | 1.3× | Brand + ecosystem value |
| MRSS City License (Upside) | TBD | 85%+ | N/A | Not in base model; Y5 +$900K |
Capex Tracker
| Item | Category | Priority | Est. Cost | Confirmed | Status | Notes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOTAL | — | — | |||||
Three-Scenario Comparison
| Metric | Bear (–30% rev / +15% opex) | Mid (Base) | Bull (+50% rev) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Y1 Net Burn | –$0K | –$0K | –$0K |
| Y2 Net Burn | –$0K | –$0K | –$0K |
| Y3 Revenue | $0K | $0K | $0K |
| Worst Cumulative (Y1–Y3 seed) | –$InfinityM (Y3) | –$InfinityM (Y3) | –$InfinityM (Y3) |
| $5.5M Raise Covers? | Yes — $InfinityK buffer | Yes — $InfinityK buffer | Yes — $InfinityK buffer |
| Cash-Positive Year | N/A | N/A | N/A |